Covid-19: Getting Numbers

I ran into an interesting animation today, comparing deaths from Covid-19 to "US daily average causes of death"* over the course of March. But . . . no sources were given, and in the end I felt confused by just what was being depicted. Specifically, what did the April 1 figure for deaths from Covid of 1,049 mean? Given that other sources I've seen today give numbers ranging in the four and five thousands for the US death total so far.
*Interestingly, gun violence does not seem to be included in this list.

It's not easy to know where to find solid, reliable, understandable information anymore—about much of anything. One has to be so careful.

But I reckon the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, despite having been greatly compromised by 45*, is still a pretty good place to turn. They do have a page updating the numbers of cases that have been officially reported, including a few graphs.

Today, for example, they report the total number of cases on 4/1 at 213,144; deaths at 4,513.

Worldometer, in contrast, lists the total at 245,066; deaths at 6,075.

That's a big difference. But whichever most reflects reality, that's a heckuva climb since March 12—three weeks ago—when the respective totals (may have) stood at 1,663 and 40. This according to yet another source I encountered on Facebook, via Rebecca Solnit—and one Zanna Zsuzsannika (whose credentials I don't know, but Rebecca usually vets pretty thoroughly). Zanna Z. has been posting daily stats:

Wed. April 1: 215,417 confirmed & 5,116 dead
Tues. March 31: 188,172 confirmed & 3,873 dead
Mon. March 30: 160,020 confirmed & 2,953 dead
Sun. March 29: 140,886 confirmed & 2,467 dead
Sat. March 28: 122,666 confirmed & 2,147 dead
Fri. March 27: 103,942 confirmed & 1,689 dead
Thur. March 26: 83,507 confirmed & 1,201 dead
Wed. March 25: 69,197 confirmed & 1,050 dead.
Tues. March 24: 51,542 confirmed in US & 674 dead.
Mon. March 23: 46,332 confirmed & 610 dead.
Sun. March 22: 33,276 confirmed & 417 dead
Sat, March 21: 26,138 confirmed & 323 dead
Fri. March 20: 19,352 confirmed & 260 dead
Thur. March 19: 13,680 confirmed & 200 dead
Wed. March 18: 8,017 confirmed & 143 dead
Tues. March 17: 6,362 confirmed & 108 dead
Mon. March 16: 4,427 confirmed & 86 dead
Sun. March 15: 3,486 confirmed and 66 dead.
Sat. March 14: 2,695 people confirmed 58 dead
Fri. March 13: 2,100 confirmed 48 dead
Thur. March 12: 1,663 confirmed & 40 dead.

Here's what that looks like in a CDC chart of total confirmed cases:

Whatever the precise numbers, we are definitely seeing them go up—exponentially? linearly? I don't know. But dramatically, for sure. 

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has been updating projections daily for hospital resource use, deaths per day, and total deaths (for 4/1 it gives 4,774 deaths). They also provide projections by state. Here's one of their interactive graphs (in static mode):

And finally, here is an article pulling together (as of March 24) "the 7 best Covid-19 resources we've found so far." They cover

• how coronaviruses work
  
• the history of pandemics 
• a coronavirus simulator (and how to limit the exponential spread)
• a real-time Covid-19 map 
• which countries are "flattening the curve" 
• tracking the coronavirus (the latest figures) 
• Covid-19 stats and research

Here are a few of the graphics associated with these last-mentioned sites. If nothing else, this virus is a bonanza for graphic designers trying to represent complex data—and for all us who do best with visualizations.

Which countries are "flattening the curve" by
Our World in Data

Tracking the coronavirus, by the Financial Times

Real-time map from Johns Hopkins University

That's enough numbers for me for one day. Except this: Monterey County cases now stand at 53, up 5 from yesterday; deaths still at 2.

Stay inside. Stay safe. Stay healthy.