Covid-19: Worry

I am not a worrier.

Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church

This evening, though, David mentioned an article he'd read about a Skagit Valley, Washington, choir that, on March 10, met to practice. Sixty people, half of the choir's full complement. At that point, no case of Covid-19 had been diagnosed in the county, and no order had been issued barring large groups from meeting. And although no one felt ill at the time or had any symptoms, and they all took precautions (no hugging, plenty of hand sanitizer), two people have now died, three have been hospitalized, and 45 are symptomatic or have tested positive for Covid-19.

What they’re speculating is that singing, all that breath being expelled, caused the virus to be communicated through the air. Droplets. Aerosols. (Something WHO had previously said wasn’t a mode of transmission.)

David’s point being, the two young men running on the trail as we took our walk this afternoon, breathing hard . . . maybe we should be more aware? careful?

But I can’t not get out.

(I do see the idea that we should all be wearing facemasks being tossed around. I’ve got a rainbow of bandanas. They’d work.)

The thing here is (I still keep thinking . . . less and less rationally, I realize): in the whole county we have only 36 confirmed cases (one death), over half of those in Salinas. I haven’t traveled beyond four or five blocks lately—to pick up pizza, to walk somewhere other than the neighborhood.

But mostly, I’ve been at home, and when I go out, I see maybe half a dozen, ten people. From a distance. What are the chances?

Well, apparently—if that choir is any indication—higher than we’d like to think. Remember: there were zero cases of the illness in Skagit County when the choir director decided to hold the practice. Now there are two dead. In less than three weeks. (Though that said, in early March this country was ridiculously unprepared to test. And it still is. So "zero cases" is somewhat meaningless.)

It’s confounding that many people can carry the virus and yet not get sick. And yet spread it. I’ve read that it’s hitting old people (over 70, over 80) hardest, or people with compromised health. And men. In Monterey County, however, our statistically insignificant sample of 36 has most cases in people under 50 (64%)—and women (67%).

This pandemic will be a goldmine for coming-up scholars in epidemiology.

My habit is not to worry. I’m washing my hands. I’m hardly going out. I’m keeping my distance as well I can. I’m yelling at people on TV to stop hugging. I try, lord knows, not to touch my face. (I’m getting better.) But I’m beginning to think I should become a worrier. More of one, anyway. It's really not in my nature . . .

But we all can change. As this virus is proving.

Stay inside. Stay safe. Stay healthy.